The third-generation iPhone SE is widely expected to be announced on Tuesday and if estimates are any indication, almost half of us will get one.
“40% of iPhone users are planning to buy iPhone SE 3, survey indicates”
40… uh… 40 percent, huh? That, uh, that would be a lot! Wow! That’s an… interesting guess!
[whispers] Honey, get your stuff and slowly go back towards the door. Do not make eye contact. When you leave, run as fast as you can. I love you.
All kidding, let’s be clear: It’s not going to be 40 percent. just no. McLeop has been warning people about buying intent from these surveys for years. People will tell you all kinds of things about what they are going to do. “I’m going to take a correspondence course and learn how to make my own iPhone SE!” Gary, the last time you tried to solder something, you burned down your house and now you have to live in a creek. stop with it.
Look at what people actually do, not what they say they’re going to do.
McLeop has no doubt the new SE will sell Pretty Well for many reasons. First, there are people who prefer Touch ID to Face ID. Second, the addition of 5G will probably get a fair number of people upgrading to older iPhones. And, last but not least, it’s also the most affordable iPhone at its new $429 price tag.
Macalope will also mention the size factor, with the iPhone SE being the next smallest phone after the iPhone 12 and 13 Mini, but that form factor is expected to pay off. Despite McLoop’s personal preference for that size, Apple clearly doesn’t consider it a big enough market to chase. Odour.
There is no doubt that the third generation iPhone SE will do just fine. Only two out of five iPhone owners are not fined. No “surprisingly fine.” Not “aggressively fine.” No. “Any sales that are reported are going to look awful compared to this strange prediction.”
SellCell, the company that forwarded the results of this survey, even drags its collar a bit when it comes to estimation.
This may sound like a high figure…
[Jimmy Stewart voice] “Where will all these sales come from?! Why, why, they’ll come from your house, Ned! And yours, Mary! And, and your grocery store, Al!”
[Angry townsfolk] “Kill him! Kill him!”
SellCell notes that only 24 percent of respondents said they would buy one for themselves. 16 percent said it would be for someone else. Honestly, though, even 24 percent sounds high. The company doesn’t specify exactly how the respondents were selected, it just said it was “an independent survey of 2,549 adult US iPhone owners.”
A somewhat more reasonable estimate comes from IDC which predicts that the third generation iPhone SE will make up about 10 percent of iPhone shipments globally once it is launched. Reasonable estimates may disagree. It’s just that 40 percent isn’t a fair estimate. It’s the kind of conjecture that no handset, not even an iPhone, can possibly live up to. The type who yells loudly at a barista when given a full caffe instead of half a caffe in her soy vanilla latte and demands to see a manager get the barista fired rather than just pick up a replacement. One big Causeless Assessment. [Editor’s note: IDC is a division of IDG, Inc., which is the parent company of Macworld.]
Thank you for participating in Anthropomorphized Estimate Theatre.
Still, that’s better than the 1.4 billion buyers that JPMorgan was throwing out back in December.
The iPhone SE 5G has the potential to attract over a billion non-premium Android users…
Exactly, just as Coke has the potential to attract all Pepsi drinkers and the Red Sox has the potential to attract all Yankees fans. This may happen! You can’t deny it!
Sure. Ok. A non-zero chance is still a chance. At some point, however, the chance gets so close to zero that it makes no real sense to write it down.
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